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Iker Pajares Bernabeu v Mohamed Elsherbini (Sun 27 Oct 2019)

Match won by Iker Pajares Bernabeu. Result: 11-9,11-5,11-7.

Starting level for Iker Pajares Bernabeu: 39,636, level confidence: 82%. Set manually.
Starting level for Mohamed Elsherbini: 32,187, level confidence: 66%.
Iker Pajares Bernabeu to win as he is currently playing 23% better than Mohamed Elsherbini.

Iker Pajares Bernabeu won all of the games and 61% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 57% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Iker Pajares Bernabeu played 56% better than Mohamed Elsherbini in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Iker Pajares Bernabeu actually played at a level of 44,674 and Mohamed Elsherbini at a level of 28,557. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 13% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Iker Pajares Bernabeu changes to +9.2% and Mohamed Elsherbini changes to -11%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Iker Pajares Bernabeu becomes +2.3% and for Mohamed Elsherbini becomes -2.8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Egyptian Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Iker Pajares Bernabeu: 90%, Mohamed Elsherbini: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Iker Pajares Bernabeu: 80%, Mohamed Elsherbini: 72%.

A final adjustment of +0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Iker Pajares Bernabeu: 40,460, level confidence: 80%.
Final level for Mohamed Elsherbini: 31,542, level confidence: 72%.