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Lucas Serme v Shehab Essam (Sun 27 Oct 2019)

Match won by Lucas Serme. Result: 11-3,11-3,11-1.

Starting level for Lucas Serme: 37,658, level confidence: 65%.
Starting level for Shehab Essam: 27,045, level confidence: 53%.
Lucas Serme to win as he is currently playing 39% better than Shehab Essam.

Lucas Serme won all of the games and 83% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 371% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Lucas Serme played 371% better than Shehab Essam in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Lucas Serme actually played at a level of 69,292 and Shehab Essam at a level of 14,698. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 84% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 68% and 68% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Lucas Serme changes to +55% and Shehab Essam changes to -68%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Lucas Serme becomes +9.5% and for Shehab Essam becomes -12%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Egyptian Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Lucas Serme is limited to +5.4% and Shehab Essam is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Lucas Serme: 81%, Shehab Essam: 73%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Lucas Serme: 44%, Shehab Essam: 40%.

A final adjustment of +0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Lucas Serme: 39,788, level confidence: 44%.
Final level for Shehab Essam: 25,829, level confidence: 40%.