Elliot Morris Devred v Peter Creed (Thu 24 Oct 2019)
Match won by Elliot Morris Devred. Result: 3-11,11-4,11-9,11-9.
Starting level for
Elliot Morris Devred:
19,811, level confidence: 68%.
Starting level for
Peter Creed:
26,474, level confidence: 37%.
Peter Creed to win as he is currently playing
34% better than Elliot Morris Devred.
Elliot Morris Devred won 75% of the games and 52% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 9% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Elliot Morris Devred played
20% better than Peter Creed in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Elliot Morris Devred actually played at a level of
25,061 and Peter Creed at a level of
20,928. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 27% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 23% and 23% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Elliot Morris Devred changes to +12% and Peter Creed changes to -23%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Elliot Morris Devred becomes +3.2% and for Peter Creed becomes -4.9%.
Given Elliot Morris Devred's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 39% has been applied to his level change.
Given Peter Creed's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 50% has been applied to his level change.
Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'South Wales Winter 2019' so the adjustment for Elliot Morris Devred is +1.7% and for Peter Creed is -2.4%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Elliot Morris Devred: 82%, Peter Creed: 61%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Elliot Morris Devred: 65%, Peter Creed: 48%.
A final adjustment of +0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Elliot Morris Devred:
20,124, level confidence: 65%.
Final level for Peter Creed:
25,906, level confidence: 48%.