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Greg Lobban v Victor Crouin (Sun 20 Oct 2019)

Match won by Greg Lobban. Result: 11-8,10-12,11-5,11-9.

Starting level for Greg Lobban: 41,411, level confidence: 81%. Set manually.
Starting level for Victor Crouin: 37,520, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Greg Lobban to win as he is currently playing 10% better than Victor Crouin.

Greg Lobban won 75% of the games and 56% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 26% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Greg Lobban played 25% better than Victor Crouin in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Greg Lobban actually played at a level of 44,156 and Victor Crouin at a level of 35,188. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 6.6% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Greg Lobban changes to +6% and Victor Crouin changes to -6.3%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Greg Lobban becomes +1.7% and for Victor Crouin becomes -1.8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Cleveland Skating Club Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Greg Lobban: 90%, Victor Crouin: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Greg Lobban: 84%, Victor Crouin: 82%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Greg Lobban: 42,074, level confidence: 84%.
Final level for Victor Crouin: 37,021, level confidence: 82%.