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Victor Crouin v Christopher Binnie (Sat 19 Oct 2019)

Match won by Victor Crouin. Result: 6-11,6-11,11-7,11-6,11-4.

Starting level for Victor Crouin: 38,007, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Starting level for Christopher Binnie: 26,396, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Victor Crouin to win as he is currently playing 44% better than Christopher Binnie.

Victor Crouin won 60% of the games and 54% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 15% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Victor Crouin played 11% better than Christopher Binnie in this match.

As Victor Crouin has played below his allowed range at 32,078, his level reduction is 9.1% before damping. On the assumption that Victor Crouin would normally have been playing at level 36,479 (based on typical behaviour), Christopher Binnie played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 11%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 7.6% and 9.4% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Victor Crouin changes to -7.1% and Christopher Binnie changes to +9.4%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Victor Crouin becomes -1.9% and for Christopher Binnie becomes +2.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Cleveland Skating Club Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Victor Crouin: 88%, Christopher Binnie: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Victor Crouin: 77%, Christopher Binnie: 75%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Victor Crouin: 37,325, level confidence: 77%.
Final level for Christopher Binnie: 27,148, level confidence: 75%.