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Adrian Waller v Vikram Malhotra (Sat 19 Oct 2019)

Match won by Adrian Waller. Result: 11-3,11-5,11-5.

Starting level for Adrian Waller: 43,331, level confidence: 79%. Set manually.
Starting level for Vikram Malhotra: 30,268, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Adrian Waller to win as he is currently playing 43% better than Vikram Malhotra.

Adrian Waller won all of the games and 72% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 154% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Adrian Waller played 154% better than Vikram Malhotra in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Adrian Waller actually played at a level of 57,700 and Vikram Malhotra at a level of 22,730. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 33% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 27% and 27% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Adrian Waller changes to +26% and Vikram Malhotra changes to -27%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Adrian Waller becomes +5% and for Vikram Malhotra becomes -5.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Chicago Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Vikram Malhotra is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Adrian Waller: 89%, Vikram Malhotra: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Adrian Waller: 67%, Vikram Malhotra: 65%.

A final adjustment of +1.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Adrian Waller: 45,175, level confidence: 67%.
Final level for Vikram Malhotra: 29,663, level confidence: 65%.