Campbell Grayson v Shahjahan Khan (Sat 19 Oct 2019)
Match won by Campbell Grayson. Result: 11-7,11-8,8-11,11-5.
Starting level for
Campbell Grayson:
41,604, level confidence: 92%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Shahjahan Khan:
26,387, level confidence: 69%.
Campbell Grayson to win as he is currently playing
58% better than Shahjahan Khan.
Campbell Grayson won 75% of the games and 57% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 32% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Campbell Grayson played
27% better than Shahjahan Khan in this match.
As Campbell Grayson has played below his allowed range at 35,198, his level reduction is 4.7% before damping. On the assumption that Campbell Grayson would normally have been playing at level 39,157 (based on typical behaviour), Shahjahan Khan played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 7.9%.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 3.7% and 6.3% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Campbell Grayson changes to -2.8% and Shahjahan Khan changes to +6.3%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Campbell Grayson becomes -1.1% and for Shahjahan Khan becomes +1.9%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Chicago Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Campbell Grayson: 96%, Shahjahan Khan: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Campbell Grayson: 86%, Shahjahan Khan: 75%.
A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Campbell Grayson:
41,159, level confidence: 86%.
Final level for Shahjahan Khan:
27,009, level confidence: 75%.