Ben Coleman v Bernat Jaume (Fri 18 Oct 2019)
Match won by Ben Coleman. Result: 11-9,7-11,11-9,4-11,11-4.
Starting level for
Ben Coleman:
32,350, level confidence: 64%.
Starting level for
Bernat Jaume:
30,940, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Ben Coleman to win as he is currently playing
5% better than Bernat Jaume.
Ben Coleman won 60% of the games and 50% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 0% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Ben Coleman played
8% better than Bernat Jaume in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Ben Coleman actually played at a level of
32,802 and Bernat Jaume at a level of
30,514. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 1.4% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Ben Coleman changes to +1.4% and Bernat Jaume changes to -1.1%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Ben Coleman becomes +0.5% and for Bernat Jaume becomes -0.5%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Tring Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Ben Coleman: 80%, Bernat Jaume: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Ben Coleman: 79%, Bernat Jaume: 87%.
A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Ben Coleman:
32,511, level confidence: 79%.
Final level for Bernat Jaume:
30,891, level confidence: 87%.