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Campbell Grayson v Arturo Salazar (Fri 18 Oct 2019)

Match won by Campbell Grayson. Result: 18-20,11-4,11-0,7-11,11-8.

Starting level for Campbell Grayson: 41,728, level confidence: 89%. Set manually.
Starting level for Arturo Salazar: 34,467, level confidence: 59%.
Campbell Grayson to win as he is currently playing 21% better than Arturo Salazar.

Campbell Grayson won 60% of the games and 57% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 35% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Campbell Grayson played 16% better than Arturo Salazar in this match.

As Campbell Grayson has played below his allowed range at 40,412, his level reduction is 0.9% before damping. On the assumption that Campbell Grayson would normally have been playing at level 41,246 (based on typical behaviour), Arturo Salazar played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 1.5%.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Campbell Grayson changes to -0.5% and Arturo Salazar changes to +1.3%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Campbell Grayson becomes -0.2% and for Arturo Salazar becomes +0.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Chicago Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Campbell Grayson: 94%, Arturo Salazar: 77%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Campbell Grayson: 93%, Arturo Salazar: 75%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Campbell Grayson: 41,612, level confidence: 93%.
Final level for Arturo Salazar: 34,820, level confidence: 75%.