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Bernat Jaume v Chris Simpson (Thu 17 Oct 2019)

Match won by Bernat Jaume. Result: 7-11,6-11,11-8,11-4,11-7.

Starting level for Bernat Jaume: 29,964, level confidence: 84%. Set manually.
Starting level for Chris Simpson: 37,936, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Chris Simpson to win as he is currently playing 27% better than Bernat Jaume.

Bernat Jaume won 60% of the games and 53% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 12% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Bernat Jaume played 11% better than Chris Simpson in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Bernat Jaume actually played at a level of 35,449 and Chris Simpson at a level of 32,066. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 18% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 16% and 16% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Bernat Jaume changes to +14% and Chris Simpson changes to -16%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Bernat Jaume becomes +3.3% and for Chris Simpson becomes -3.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Tring Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Bernat Jaume: 92%, Chris Simpson: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Bernat Jaume: 78%, Chris Simpson: 72%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Bernat Jaume: 30,940, level confidence: 78%.
Final level for Chris Simpson: 36,706, level confidence: 72%.