SquashLevels calculations
Mazen Gamal v Alejandro Reyes (Thu 17 Oct 2019)
Match won by Mazen Gamal. Result: 11-8,11-4,11-3.
Starting level for
Mazen Gamal:
27,550, level confidence: 56%.
Starting level for
Alejandro Reyes:
12,268, level confidence: 58%.
Mazen Gamal to win as he is currently playing
125% better than Alejandro Reyes.
Mazen Gamal won all of the games and 69% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 120% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mazen Gamal played
120% better than Alejandro Reyes in this match.
Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Mazen Gamal was taking it easy by anything up to 16%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 19,659 and 27,550 without affecting his level.
In this case, Mazen Gamal played at level 26,990 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. Consequently, Alejandro Reyes is considered to have not played better than expected and his level will also not be adjusted.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mazen Gamal: 75%, Alejandro Reyes: 76%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mazen Gamal: 74%, Alejandro Reyes: 75%.
Final level for Mazen Gamal:
27,550, level confidence: 74%.
Final level for Alejandro Reyes:
12,268, level confidence: 75%.