Alfredo Avila v Mustafa Nawar (Thu 17 Oct 2019)
Match won by Alfredo Avila. Result: 11-3,11-6,11-3.
Starting level for
Alfredo Avila:
29,619, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Mustafa Nawar:
11,663, level confidence: 82%. Set manually.
Alfredo Avila to win as he is currently playing
154% better than Mustafa Nawar.
Alfredo Avila won all of the games and 73% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 175% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Alfredo Avila played
175% better than Mustafa Nawar in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Alfredo Avila actually played at a level of
30,822 and Mustafa Nawar at a level of
11,208. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 4.1% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 2.5% and 2.5% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Alfredo Avila changes to +2.5% and Mustafa Nawar changes to -2.2%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Alfredo Avila becomes +1% and for Mustafa Nawar becomes -1%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Cleveland Skating Club Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Alfredo Avila: 84%, Mustafa Nawar: 91%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Alfredo Avila: 81%, Mustafa Nawar: 87%.
Final level for Alfredo Avila:
29,920, level confidence: 81%.
Final level for Mustafa Nawar:
11,543, level confidence: 87%.