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Chris Hanson v Faraz Khan (Thu 17 Oct 2019)

Match won by Chris Hanson. Result: 11-9,11-4,11-3.

Starting level for Chris Hanson: 31,424, level confidence: 52%.
Starting level for Faraz Khan: 21,807, level confidence: 69%.
Chris Hanson to win as he is currently playing 44% better than Faraz Khan.

Chris Hanson won all of the games and 67% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 106% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Chris Hanson played 106% better than Faraz Khan in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Chris Hanson actually played at a level of 37,595 and Faraz Khan at a level of 18,228. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 20% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 16% and 16% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Chris Hanson changes to +16% and Faraz Khan changes to -12%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Chris Hanson becomes +3.6% and for Faraz Khan becomes -3.1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Chicago Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Chris Hanson: 72%, Faraz Khan: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Chris Hanson: 61%, Faraz Khan: 69%.

A final adjustment of -0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Chris Hanson: 32,327, level confidence: 61%.
Final level for Faraz Khan: 21,293, level confidence: 69%.