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Rui Soares v Cameron Pilley (Thu 17 Oct 2019)

Match won by Rui Soares. Result: 11-9,5-11,11-8,6-11,13-11.

Starting level for Rui Soares: 27,755, level confidence: 81%. Set manually.
Starting level for Cameron Pilley: 38,658, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Cameron Pilley to win as he is currently playing 39% better than Rui Soares.

Rui Soares won 60% of the games and 48% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was worse by around 9% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Rui Soares played 6% better than Cameron Pilley in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Rui Soares actually played at a level of 33,645 and Cameron Pilley at a level of 31,891. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 21% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 18% and 18% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Rui Soares changes to +17% and Cameron Pilley changes to -18%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Rui Soares becomes +3.9% and for Cameron Pilley becomes -3.8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Chicago Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Rui Soares: 90%, Cameron Pilley: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Rui Soares: 74%, Cameron Pilley: 73%.

A final adjustment of +0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Rui Soares: 28,825, level confidence: 74%.
Final level for Cameron Pilley: 37,279, level confidence: 73%.