Bernat Jaume v Peter Creed (Wed 16 Oct 2019)
Match won by Bernat Jaume. Result: 11-6,11-4,5-11,11-6.
Starting level for
Bernat Jaume:
29,297, level confidence: 79%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Peter Creed:
24,981, level confidence: 69%.
Bernat Jaume to win as he is currently playing
17% better than Peter Creed.
Bernat Jaume won 75% of the games and 58% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 41% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Bernat Jaume played
30% better than Peter Creed in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Bernat Jaume actually played at a level of
30,868 and Peter Creed at a level of
23,709. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 5.4% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Bernat Jaume changes to +4.3% and Peter Creed changes to -4.9%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Bernat Jaume becomes +1.5% and for Peter Creed becomes -1.7%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Tring Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Bernat Jaume: 89%, Peter Creed: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Bernat Jaume: 85%, Peter Creed: 79%.
A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Bernat Jaume:
29,664, level confidence: 85%.
Final level for Peter Creed:
24,681, level confidence: 79%.