SquashLevels calculations
Mohamed Elsherbini v Connor Sheen (Wed 16 Oct 2019)
Match won by Mohamed Elsherbini. Result: 11-5,11-9,11-5.
Starting level for
Mohamed Elsherbini:
32,915, level confidence: 52%.
Starting level for
Connor Sheen:
18,227, level confidence: 70%.
Mohamed Elsherbini to win as he is currently playing
81% better than Connor Sheen.
Mohamed Elsherbini won all of the games and 63% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 74% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mohamed Elsherbini played
74% better than Connor Sheen in this match.
In this case, Mohamed Elsherbini played at level 31,657 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. Consequently, Connor Sheen is considered to have not played better than expected and his level will also not be adjusted.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mohamed Elsherbini: 72%, Connor Sheen: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mohamed Elsherbini: 71%, Connor Sheen: 82%.
Final level for Mohamed Elsherbini:
32,915, level confidence: 71%.
Final level for Connor Sheen:
18,227, level confidence: 82%.