SquashLevels
Find
Menu
Rankings
 
Help
 
 
 
cookies_acceptance
important
To give you the best experience, we use cookies to remember your settings and personalise your pages and social media. Please click Accept if you are happy for us to do this. To find out more about our use of cookies please see our cookie policy.
 

Peter Creed v Lewys Hurst (Thu 17 Oct 2019)

Match won by Peter Creed. Result: 11-0,11-1,11-1.

Starting level for Peter Creed: 24,653, level confidence: 79%. Set manually.
Starting level for Lewys Hurst: 12,357, level confidence: 70%.
Peter Creed to win as he is currently playing 100% better than Lewys Hurst.

Peter Creed won all of the games and 94% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 1000% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Peter Creed played 1000% better than Lewys Hurst in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Peter Creed actually played at a level of 57,888 and Lewys Hurst at a level of 5,263. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 135% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 83% and 83% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Peter Creed changes to +74% and Lewys Hurst changes to -83%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Peter Creed becomes +12.9% and for Lewys Hurst becomes -16%.

Given Peter Creed's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 47% has been applied to his level change.

Given Lewys Hurst's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 23% has been applied to his level change. Looks like he wasn't taking the match too seriously...

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'South Wales Winter 2019' so the adjustment for Peter Creed is +6.6% and for Lewys Hurst is -9.4%.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Lewys Hurst is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Peter Creed: 89%, Lewys Hurst: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Peter Creed: 38%, Lewys Hurst: 36%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Peter Creed: 26,118, level confidence: 38%.
Final level for Lewys Hurst: 11,751, level confidence: 36%.