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Adam Auckland v Olli Tuominen (Sat 12 Oct 2019)

Match won by Olli Tuominen. Result: 11-6,5-11,7-11,11-6,8-11.

Starting level for Adam Auckland: 19,579, level confidence: 67%.
Starting level for Olli Tuominen: 30,550, level confidence: 62%.
Olli Tuominen to win as he is currently playing 56% better than Adam Auckland.

Olli Tuominen won 60% of the games and 52% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 7% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Olli Tuominen played 9% better than Adam Auckland in this match.

As Olli Tuominen has played below his allowed range at 24,122, his level reduction is 13% before damping. On the assumption that Olli Tuominen would normally have been playing at level 28,823 (based on typical behaviour), Adam Auckland played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 16%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 10.1% and 13% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Olli Tuominen changes to -10.1% and Adam Auckland changes to +12%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Olli Tuominen becomes -2.6% and for Adam Auckland becomes +3.1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Seriespel 2019-2020' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Olli Tuominen: 79%, Adam Auckland: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Olli Tuominen: 66%, Adam Auckland: 69%.

A final adjustment of +0.5% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Adam Auckland: 20,159, level confidence: 69%.
Final level for Olli Tuominen: 30,119, level confidence: 66%.