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Olli Tuominen v Christian Drakenberg (Fri 11 Oct 2019)

Match won by Olli Tuominen. Result: 11-4,12-10,11-2.

Starting level for Olli Tuominen: 28,986, level confidence: 31%.
Starting level for Christian Drakenberg: 19,771, level confidence: 49%.
Olli Tuominen to win as he is currently playing 47% better than Christian Drakenberg.

Olli Tuominen won all of the games and 68% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 113% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Olli Tuominen played 113% better than Christian Drakenberg in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Olli Tuominen actually played at a level of 34,897 and Christian Drakenberg at a level of 16,422. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 20% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 17% and 17% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Olli Tuominen changes to +17% and Christian Drakenberg changes to -9.8%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Olli Tuominen becomes +3.8% and for Christian Drakenberg becomes -2.7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Seriespel 2019-2020' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Olli Tuominen: 56%, Christian Drakenberg: 70%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Olli Tuominen: 46%, Christian Drakenberg: 58%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Olli Tuominen: 30,038, level confidence: 46%.
Final level for Christian Drakenberg: 19,214, level confidence: 58%.