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Nouran Gohar v Nour El Tayeb (Sat 12 Oct 2019)

Match won by Nouran Gohar. Result: 3-11,8-11,14-12,11-8,11-7.

Starting level for Nouran Gohar: 13,866, level confidence: 50%.
Starting level for Nour El Tayeb: 15,316, level confidence: 68%.
Nour El Tayeb to win as she is currently playing 10% better than Nouran Gohar.

Nouran Gohar won 60% of the games and 49% of the points.
This games result would be expected if she was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if she was worse by around 4% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Nouran Gohar played 6% better than Nour El Tayeb in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Nouran Gohar actually played at a level of 15,038 and Nour El Tayeb at a level of 14,123. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 8.5% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Nouran Gohar changes to +8% and Nour El Tayeb changes to -5.8%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Nouran Gohar becomes +2.5% and for Nour El Tayeb becomes -2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Us Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Nouran Gohar: 71%, Nour El Tayeb: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Nouran Gohar: 65%, Nour El Tayeb: 76%.

A final adjustment of -0.4% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Nouran Gohar: 14,142, level confidence: 65%.
Final level for Nour El Tayeb: 14,981, level confidence: 76%.