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Nouran Gohar v Camille Serme (Fri 11 Oct 2019)

Match won by Nouran Gohar. Result: 11-4,11-6,11-4.

Starting level for Nouran Gohar: 13,288, level confidence: 64%.
Starting level for Camille Serme: 14,116, level confidence: 57%.
Camille Serme to win as she is currently playing 6% better than Nouran Gohar.

Nouran Gohar won all of the games and 70% of the points.
This games result would be expected if she was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if she was better by around 136% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Nouran Gohar played 136% better than Camille Serme in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Nouran Gohar actually played at a level of 21,027 and Camille Serme at a level of 8,921. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 58% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Nouran Gohar changes to +51% and Camille Serme changes to -56%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Nouran Gohar becomes +10.9% and for Camille Serme becomes -12%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Us Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Nouran Gohar is limited to +4.5% and Camille Serme is limited to -4.4% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Nouran Gohar: 80%, Camille Serme: 76%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Nouran Gohar: 50%, Camille Serme: 48%.

A final adjustment of -0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Nouran Gohar: 13,841, level confidence: 50%.
Final level for Camille Serme: 13,471, level confidence: 48%.