SquashLevels
Find
Menu
Rankings
 
Help
 
 
 
cookies_acceptance
important
To give you the best experience, we use cookies to remember your settings and personalise your pages and social media. Please click Accept if you are happy for us to do this. To find out more about our use of cookies please see our cookie policy.
 

Mohamed Elshorbagy v Paul Coll (Thu 10 Oct 2019)

Match won by Mohamed Elshorbagy. Result: 12-10,14-12,11-5.

Starting level for Mohamed Elshorbagy: 69,673, level confidence: 82%. Set manually.
Starting level for Paul Coll: 68,725, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Mohamed Elshorbagy to win as he is currently playing 1% better than Paul Coll.

Mohamed Elshorbagy won all of the games and 58% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 37% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mohamed Elshorbagy played 43% better than Paul Coll in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Mohamed Elshorbagy actually played at a level of 82,738 and Paul Coll at a level of 57,873. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 19% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mohamed Elshorbagy changes to +16% and Paul Coll changes to -19%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mohamed Elshorbagy becomes +3.2% and for Paul Coll becomes -3.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Us Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mohamed Elshorbagy: 91%, Paul Coll: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mohamed Elshorbagy: 76%, Paul Coll: 71%.

A final adjustment of +0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Mohamed Elshorbagy: 71,640, level confidence: 76%.
Final level for Paul Coll: 66,589, level confidence: 71%.