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Raneem El Welily v Yathreb Adel (Wed 09 Oct 2019)

Match won by Raneem El Welily. Result: 11-3,11-5,11-4.

Starting level for Raneem El Welily: 14,204, level confidence: 67%.
Starting level for Yathreb Adel: 9,112, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Raneem El Welily to win as she is currently playing 56% better than Yathreb Adel.

Raneem El Welily won all of the games and 73% of the points.
This games result would be expected if she was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if she was better by around 175% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Raneem El Welily played 175% better than Yathreb Adel in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Raneem El Welily actually played at a level of 18,866 and Yathreb Adel at a level of 6,860. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 33% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 26% and 26% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Raneem El Welily changes to +26% and Yathreb Adel changes to -21%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Raneem El Welily becomes +6.1% and for Yathreb Adel becomes -5.8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Us Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Raneem El Welily is limited to +4.4% and Yathreb Adel is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Raneem El Welily: 82%, Yathreb Adel: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Raneem El Welily: 61%, Yathreb Adel: 66%.

A final adjustment of -0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Raneem El Welily: 14,676, level confidence: 61%.
Final level for Yathreb Adel: 8,766, level confidence: 66%.