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Tarek Momen v Raphael Kandra (Wed 09 Oct 2019)

Match won by Tarek Momen. Result: 11-5,11-6,12-10.

Starting level for Tarek Momen: 66,129, level confidence: 62%.
Starting level for Raphael Kandra: 44,312, level confidence: 67%.
Tarek Momen to win as he is currently playing 49% better than Raphael Kandra.

Tarek Momen won all of the games and 62% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 62% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Tarek Momen played 62% better than Raphael Kandra in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Tarek Momen actually played at a level of 68,879 and Raphael Kandra at a level of 42,543. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 4.2% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 3.4% and 3.4% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Tarek Momen changes to +3.4% and Raphael Kandra changes to -3.1%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Tarek Momen becomes +1.1% and for Raphael Kandra becomes -1.2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Us Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Tarek Momen: 79%, Raphael Kandra: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Tarek Momen: 75%, Raphael Kandra: 79%.

A final adjustment of -0.6% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Tarek Momen: 65,783, level confidence: 75%.
Final level for Raphael Kandra: 44,011, level confidence: 79%.