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Diego Elias v Joel Makin (Wed 09 Oct 2019)

Match won by Diego Elias. Result: 11-5,11-9,11-8.

Starting level for Diego Elias: 56,060, level confidence: 81%. Set manually.
Starting level for Joel Makin: 57,248, level confidence: 86%. Set manually.
Joel Makin to win as he is currently playing 2% better than Diego Elias.

Diego Elias won all of the games and 60% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 50% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Diego Elias played 52% better than Joel Makin in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Diego Elias actually played at a level of 69,763 and Joel Makin at a level of 46,003. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 24% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Diego Elias changes to +24% and Joel Makin changes to -22%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Diego Elias becomes +4.6% and for Joel Makin becomes -4.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Us Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Diego Elias: 90%, Joel Makin: 93%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Diego Elias: 72%, Joel Makin: 74%.

A final adjustment of -0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Diego Elias: 58,342, level confidence: 72%.
Final level for Joel Makin: 55,135, level confidence: 74%.