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Nouran Gohar v Nele Gilis (Tue 08 Oct 2019)

Match won by Nouran Gohar. Result: 11-1,5-11,11-2,11-9.

Starting level for Nouran Gohar: 12,479, level confidence: 58%.
Starting level for Nele Gilis: 9,658, level confidence: 62%.
Nouran Gohar to win as she is currently playing 29% better than Nele Gilis.

Nouran Gohar won 75% of the games and 62% of the points.
This games result would be expected if she was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if she was better by around 65% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Nouran Gohar played 38% better than Nele Gilis in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Nouran Gohar actually played at a level of 12,909 and Nele Gilis at a level of 9,336. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 3.4% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 3% and 3% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Nouran Gohar changes to +3% and Nele Gilis changes to -2.8%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Nouran Gohar becomes +1.4% and for Nele Gilis becomes -1.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Us Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Nouran Gohar: 76%, Nele Gilis: 79%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Nouran Gohar: 74%, Nele Gilis: 76%.

A final adjustment of -0.4% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Nouran Gohar: 12,435, level confidence: 74%.
Final level for Nele Gilis: 9,624, level confidence: 76%.