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Sarah-Jane Perry v Hollie Naughton (Tue 08 Oct 2019)

Match won by Sarah-Jane Perry. Result: 11-7,11-6,11-8.

Starting level for Sarah-Jane Perry: 10,427, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Starting level for Hollie Naughton: 8,229, level confidence: 67%.
Sarah-Jane Perry to win as she is currently playing 27% better than Hollie Naughton.

Sarah-Jane Perry won all of the games and 61% of the points.
This games result would be expected if she was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if she was better by around 57% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Sarah-Jane Perry played 56% better than Hollie Naughton in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Sarah-Jane Perry actually played at a level of 11,586 and Hollie Naughton at a level of 7,406. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 11% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 9.8% and 9.8% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Sarah-Jane Perry changes to +8.6% and Hollie Naughton changes to -9.8%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Sarah-Jane Perry becomes +2.8% and for Hollie Naughton becomes -3.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Us Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Sarah-Jane Perry: 87%, Hollie Naughton: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Sarah-Jane Perry: 79%, Hollie Naughton: 73%.

A final adjustment of -0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Sarah-Jane Perry: 10,567, level confidence: 79%.
Final level for Hollie Naughton: 8,042, level confidence: 73%.