Campbell Grayson v Andrew Douglas (Tue 08 Oct 2019)
Match won by Campbell Grayson. Result: 11-7,11-4,11-7.
Starting level for
Campbell Grayson:
40,738, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Andrew Douglas:
25,398, level confidence: 54%.
Campbell Grayson to win as he is currently playing
60% better than Andrew Douglas.
Campbell Grayson won all of the games and 65% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 83% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Campbell Grayson played
83% better than Andrew Douglas in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Campbell Grayson actually played at a level of
43,553 and Andrew Douglas at a level of
23,756. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 6.9% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 5.4% and 5.4% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Campbell Grayson changes to +4% and Andrew Douglas changes to -5.4%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Campbell Grayson becomes +1.3% and for Andrew Douglas becomes -1.7%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Us Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Campbell Grayson: 86%, Andrew Douglas: 74%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Campbell Grayson: 81%, Andrew Douglas: 69%.
A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Campbell Grayson:
40,999, level confidence: 81%.
Final level for Andrew Douglas:
25,178, level confidence: 69%.