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Tarek Momen v Abdulla Al-Tamimi (Tue 08 Oct 2019)

Match won by Tarek Momen. Result: 7-11,11-7,11-9,5-11,11-6.

Starting level for Tarek Momen: 67,106, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Starting level for Abdulla Al-Tamimi: 32,225, level confidence: 59%.
Tarek Momen to win as he is currently playing 108% better than Abdulla Al-Tamimi.

Tarek Momen won 60% of the games and 51% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 2% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Tarek Momen played 8% better than Abdulla Al-Tamimi in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Tarek Momen was taking it easy by anything up to 13%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 50,255 and 67,106 without affecting his level.

As Tarek Momen has played below his allowed range at 41,835, his level reduction is 20% before damping. On the assumption that Tarek Momen would normally have been playing at level 58,073 (based on typical behaviour), Abdulla Al-Tamimi played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 29%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 14% and 19% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Tarek Momen changes to -10.3% and Abdulla Al-Tamimi changes to +19%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Tarek Momen becomes -2.3% and for Abdulla Al-Tamimi becomes +4.2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Us Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Tarek Momen: 86%, Abdulla Al-Tamimi: 76%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Tarek Momen: 62%, Abdulla Al-Tamimi: 55%.

A final adjustment of -0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Tarek Momen: 65,547, level confidence: 62%.
Final level for Abdulla Al-Tamimi: 33,596, level confidence: 55%.