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Joel Makin v Iker Pajares Bernabeu (Tue 08 Oct 2019)

Match won by Joel Makin. Result: 11-7,11-7,8-11,11-2.

Starting level for Joel Makin: 57,123, level confidence: 82%. Set manually.
Starting level for Iker Pajares Bernabeu: 38,896, level confidence: 72%. Set manually.
Joel Makin to win as he is currently playing 47% better than Iker Pajares Bernabeu.

Joel Makin won 75% of the games and 60% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 52% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Joel Makin played 34% better than Iker Pajares Bernabeu in this match.

As Joel Makin has played below his allowed range at 52,135, his level reduction is 0% before damping. On the assumption that Joel Makin would normally have been playing at level 54,608 (based on typical behaviour), Iker Pajares Bernabeu played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 2.4%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 2% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Joel Makin changes to 0% and Iker Pajares Bernabeu changes to +2%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Joel Makin becomes -0% and for Iker Pajares Bernabeu becomes +0.8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Us Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Joel Makin: 91%, Iker Pajares Bernabeu: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Joel Makin: 86%, Iker Pajares Bernabeu: 81%.

A final adjustment of +0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Joel Makin: 56,823, level confidence: 86%.
Final level for Iker Pajares Bernabeu: 39,387, level confidence: 81%.