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Rowan Elaraby v Ho Tze-Lok (Mon 07 Oct 2019)

Match won by Rowan Elaraby. Result: 11-5,11-8,11-8.

Starting level for Rowan Elaraby: 7,753, level confidence: 68%.
Starting level for Ho Tze-Lok: 6,548, level confidence: 62%.
Rowan Elaraby to win as she is currently playing 18% better than Ho Tze-Lok.

Rowan Elaraby won all of the games and 61% of the points.
This games result would be expected if she was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if she was better by around 57% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Rowan Elaraby played 56% better than Ho Tze-Lok in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Rowan Elaraby actually played at a level of 8,912 and Ho Tze-Lok at a level of 5,697. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 15% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Rowan Elaraby changes to +12% and Ho Tze-Lok changes to -14%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Rowan Elaraby becomes +4% and for Ho Tze-Lok becomes -4.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Us Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Rowan Elaraby: 83%, Ho Tze-Lok: 79%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Rowan Elaraby: 72%, Ho Tze-Lok: 69%.

A final adjustment of +0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Rowan Elaraby: 7,939, level confidence: 72%.
Final level for Ho Tze-Lok: 6,400, level confidence: 69%.