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Abdulla Al-Tamimi v Leo Au (Mon 07 Oct 2019)

Match won by Abdulla Al-Tamimi. Result: 12-10,11-7,11-3.

Starting level for Abdulla Al-Tamimi: 30,615, level confidence: 82%. Set manually.
Starting level for Leo Au: 43,017, level confidence: 51%.
Leo Au to win as he is currently playing 41% better than Abdulla Al-Tamimi.

Abdulla Al-Tamimi won all of the games and 63% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 70% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Abdulla Al-Tamimi played 70% better than Leo Au in this match. An upset!

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Abdulla Al-Tamimi actually played at a level of 47,316 and Leo Au at a level of 27,833. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 55% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 44% and 44% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Abdulla Al-Tamimi changes to +28% and Leo Au changes to -44%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Abdulla Al-Tamimi becomes +5.6% and for Leo Au becomes -7.8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Us Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Leo Au is limited to -5.2% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Abdulla Al-Tamimi: 91%, Leo Au: 71%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Abdulla Al-Tamimi: 59%, Leo Au: 46%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Abdulla Al-Tamimi: 32,225, level confidence: 59%.
Final level for Leo Au: 40,928, level confidence: 46%.