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George Parker v Tom Richards (Mon 07 Oct 2019)

Match won by George Parker. Result: 11-3,9-11,11-3,15-13.

Starting level for George Parker: 36,533, level confidence: 79%. Set manually.
Starting level for Tom Richards: 40,805, level confidence: 62%.
Tom Richards to win as he is currently playing 12% better than George Parker.

George Parker won 75% of the games and 61% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 53% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that George Parker played 34% better than Tom Richards in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like George Parker actually played at a level of 44,753 and Tom Richards at a level of 33,310. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 22% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for George Parker changes to +17% and Tom Richards changes to -21%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for George Parker becomes +3.6% and for Tom Richards becomes -4.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Us Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. George Parker: 89%, Tom Richards: 79%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. George Parker: 72%, Tom Richards: 64%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for George Parker: 37,818, level confidence: 72%.
Final level for Tom Richards: 39,309, level confidence: 64%.