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Daryl Selby v Karim Ali Fathi (Mon 07 Oct 2019)

Match won by Daryl Selby. Result: 9-11,11-7,11-7,11-6.

Starting level for Daryl Selby: 35,464, level confidence: 38%.
Starting level for Karim Ali Fathi: 36,149, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Karim Ali Fathi to win as he is currently playing 2% better than Daryl Selby.

Daryl Selby won 75% of the games and 58% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 35% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Daryl Selby played 28% better than Karim Ali Fathi in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Daryl Selby actually played at a level of 40,581 and Karim Ali Fathi at a level of 31,591. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 14% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Daryl Selby changes to +14% and Karim Ali Fathi changes to -7.2%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Daryl Selby becomes +3.2% and for Karim Ali Fathi becomes -2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Us Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Daryl Selby: 62%, Karim Ali Fathi: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Daryl Selby: 54%, Karim Ali Fathi: 74%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Daryl Selby: 36,563, level confidence: 54%.
Final level for Karim Ali Fathi: 35,567, level confidence: 74%.