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Luke Bishop v Peter Creed (Thu 10 Oct 2019)

Match won by Peter Creed. Result: 4-11,2-11,5-11.

Starting level for Luke Bishop: 12,138, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Starting level for Peter Creed: 24,788, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Peter Creed to win as he is currently playing 104% better than Luke Bishop.

Peter Creed won all of the games and 75% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 200% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Peter Creed played 200% better than Luke Bishop in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Peter Creed actually played at a level of 30,044 and Luke Bishop at a level of 10,015. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 21% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 14% and 14% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Peter Creed changes to +14% and Luke Bishop changes to -14%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Peter Creed becomes +3.5% and for Luke Bishop becomes -3.9%.

Given Peter Creed's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 47% has been applied to his level change.

Given Luke Bishop's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 23% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'South Wales Winter 2019' so the adjustment for Peter Creed is +1.8% and for Luke Bishop is -2.4%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Peter Creed: 86%, Luke Bishop: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Peter Creed: 71%, Luke Bishop: 73%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Luke Bishop: 11,841, level confidence: 73%.
Final level for Peter Creed: 25,191, level confidence: 71%.