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Sam Todd v George Parker (Wed 09 Oct 2019)

Match won by George Parker. Result: 11-2,8-11,18-20,6-11.

Starting level for Sam Todd: 19,812, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Starting level for George Parker: 38,062, level confidence: 82%. Set manually.
George Parker to win as he is currently playing 92% better than Sam Todd.

George Parker won 75% of the games and 51% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 2% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that George Parker played 18% better than Sam Todd in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that George Parker was taking it easy by anything up to 11%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 29,243 and 38,062 without affecting his level.

As George Parker has played below his allowed range at 26,093, his level reduction is 12% before damping. On the assumption that George Parker would normally have been playing at level 33,855 (based on typical behaviour), Sam Todd played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 21%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 8.6% and 14% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for George Parker changes to -7.8% and Sam Todd changes to +14%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for George Parker becomes -2.1% and for Sam Todd becomes +3.6%.

Given George Parker's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 66% has been applied to his level change.

Given Sam Todd's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 39% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Yorkshire Winter League 2019/20' so the adjustment for George Parker is -0.9% and for Sam Todd is +2%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. George Parker: 91%, Sam Todd: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. George Parker: 71%, Sam Todd: 68%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Sam Todd: 20,252, level confidence: 68%.
Final level for George Parker: 37,808, level confidence: 71%.