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Moustafa Elsirty v Yahya Elnawasany (Sun 06 Oct 2019)

Match won by Moustafa Elsirty. Result: 11-5,7-11,11-9,11-9.

Starting level for Moustafa Elsirty: 22,487, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Starting level for Yahya Elnawasany: 16,434, level confidence: 59%.
Moustafa Elsirty to win as he is currently playing 37% better than Yahya Elnawasany.

Moustafa Elsirty won 75% of the games and 54% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 18% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Moustafa Elsirty played 23% better than Yahya Elnawasany in this match.

As Moustafa Elsirty has played below his allowed range at 20,625, his level reduction is 2.4% before damping. On the assumption that Moustafa Elsirty would normally have been playing at level 21,791 (based on typical behaviour), Yahya Elnawasany played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 4%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 2% and 3.4% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Moustafa Elsirty changes to -1.5% and Yahya Elnawasany changes to +3.4%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Moustafa Elsirty becomes -0.7% and for Yahya Elnawasany becomes +1.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Egyptian Tour' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Moustafa Elsirty: 88%, Yahya Elnawasany: 77%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Moustafa Elsirty: 84%, Yahya Elnawasany: 73%.

Final level for Moustafa Elsirty: 22,341, level confidence: 84%.
Final level for Yahya Elnawasany: 16,670, level confidence: 73%.