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Yahya Elnawasany v Khaled Labib (Fri 04 Oct 2019)

Match won by Yahya Elnawasany. Result: 11-5,11-2,14-12.

Starting level for Yahya Elnawasany: 15,479, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Starting level for Khaled Labib: 16,729, level confidence: 47%.
Khaled Labib to win as he is currently playing 8% better than Yahya Elnawasany.

Yahya Elnawasany won all of the games and 65% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 89% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Yahya Elnawasany played 89% better than Khaled Labib in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Yahya Elnawasany actually played at a level of 22,150 and Khaled Labib at a level of 11,690. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 43% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Yahya Elnawasany changes to +26% and Khaled Labib changes to -41%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Yahya Elnawasany becomes +6.2% and for Khaled Labib becomes -8.8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Egyptian Tour' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Khaled Labib is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Yahya Elnawasany: 86%, Khaled Labib: 68%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Yahya Elnawasany: 60%, Khaled Labib: 48%.

A final adjustment of -0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Yahya Elnawasany: 16,435, level confidence: 60%.
Final level for Khaled Labib: 15,932, level confidence: 48%.