Yahya Elnawasany v Abdallah Elmasry (Thu 03 Oct 2019)
Match won by Yahya Elnawasany. Result: 11-4,6-11,10-12,11-7,11-8.
Starting level for
Yahya Elnawasany:
15,587, level confidence: 61%.
Starting level for
Abdallah Elmasry:
12,444, level confidence: 56%.
Yahya Elnawasany to win as he is currently playing
25% better than Abdallah Elmasry.
Yahya Elnawasany won 60% of the games and 54% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 17% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Yahya Elnawasany played
12% better than Abdallah Elmasry in this match.
As Yahya Elnawasany has played below his allowed range at 14,473, his level reduction is 4.2% before damping. On the assumption that Yahya Elnawasany would normally have been playing at level 15,329 (based on typical behaviour), Abdallah Elmasry played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 5%.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 3.7% and 4.5% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Yahya Elnawasany changes to -3.4% and Abdallah Elmasry changes to +4.5%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Yahya Elnawasany becomes -1.5% and for Abdallah Elmasry becomes +1.8%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Egyptian Tour' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Yahya Elnawasany: 78%, Abdallah Elmasry: 75%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Yahya Elnawasany: 74%, Abdallah Elmasry: 70%.
Final level for Yahya Elnawasany:
15,362, level confidence: 74%.
Final level for Abdallah Elmasry:
12,664, level confidence: 70%.