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Baptiste Masotti v Nick Matthew (Tue 01 Oct 2019)

Match won by Nick Matthew. Result: 5-11,9-11.

Starting level for Baptiste Masotti: 33,342, level confidence: 67%.
Starting level for Nick Matthew: 47,394, level confidence: 25%.
Nick Matthew to win as he is currently playing 42% better than Baptiste Masotti.

Nick Matthew won all of the games and 61% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 57% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Nick Matthew played 56% better than Baptiste Masotti in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Nick Matthew actually played at a level of 49,719 and Baptiste Masotti at a level of 31,783. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 4.9% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 4.1% and 4.1% respectively.
As this is a best of 3 match rather than best of 5, these adjustments have been reduced to 3.1% and 3.1% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Nick Matthew changes to +3.1% and Baptiste Masotti changes to -1.1%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Nick Matthew becomes +1.1% and for Baptiste Masotti becomes -0.4%.

Given Nick Matthew's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 7.1% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 85% for 'Premier League' so the adjustment for Nick Matthew is +0.9% and for Baptiste Masotti is -0.4%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Nick Matthew: 50%, Baptiste Masotti: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Nick Matthew: 48%, Baptiste Masotti: 78%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Baptiste Masotti: 33,299, level confidence: 78%.
Final level for Nick Matthew: 47,935, level confidence: 48%.