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Connor Sheen v Chris Simpson (Wed 02 Oct 2019)

Match won by Chris Simpson. Result: 11-13,10-12,4-11.

Starting level for Connor Sheen: 17,029, level confidence: 51%.
Starting level for Chris Simpson: 36,623, level confidence: 49%.
Chris Simpson to win as he is currently playing 115% better than Connor Sheen.

Chris Simpson won all of the games and 59% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 44% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Chris Simpson played 48% better than Connor Sheen in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Chris Simpson was taking it easy by anything up to 14%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 25,859 and 36,623 without affecting his level.

As Chris Simpson has played below his allowed range at 25,497, his level reduction is 1.4% before damping. On the assumption that Chris Simpson would normally have been playing at level 31,375 (based on typical behaviour), Connor Sheen played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 12%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 1% and 7.8% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Chris Simpson changes to -1% and Connor Sheen changes to +7.6%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Chris Simpson becomes -0.4% and for Connor Sheen becomes +2.3%.

Given Chris Simpson's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 64% has been applied to his level change.

Given Connor Sheen's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 34% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Yorkshire Winter League 2019/20' so the adjustment for Chris Simpson is 0% and for Connor Sheen is +1.3%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Chris Simpson: 70%, Connor Sheen: 71%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Chris Simpson: 58%, Connor Sheen: 59%.

A final adjustment of +0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Connor Sheen: 17,295, level confidence: 59%.
Final level for Chris Simpson: 36,652, level confidence: 58%.