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Tarek Momen v Miguel Rodriguez (Sun 29 Sep 2019)

Match won by Tarek Momen. Result: 11-6,11-3.

Starting level for Tarek Momen: 65,837, level confidence: 80%. Set manually.
Starting level for Miguel Rodriguez: 49,998, level confidence: 53%.
Tarek Momen to win as he is currently playing 32% better than Miguel Rodriguez.

Tarek Momen won all of the games and 71% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 144% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Tarek Momen played 144% better than Miguel Rodriguez in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Tarek Momen actually played at a level of 89,702 and Miguel Rodriguez at a level of 36,696. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 36% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 31% and 31% respectively.
As this is a best of 3 match rather than best of 5, these adjustments have been reduced to 22% and 22% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Tarek Momen changes to +15% and Miguel Rodriguez changes to -22%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Tarek Momen becomes +3% and for Miguel Rodriguez becomes -4.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Netsuite Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Tarek Momen: 89%, Miguel Rodriguez: 73%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Tarek Momen: 66%, Miguel Rodriguez: 53%.

A final adjustment of +0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Tarek Momen: 67,610, level confidence: 66%.
Final level for Miguel Rodriguez: 48,306, level confidence: 53%.