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Marwan Elshorbagy v Raphael Kandra (Sat 28 Sep 2019)

Match won by Marwan Elshorbagy. Result: 12-10,10-12,13-11.

Starting level for Marwan Elshorbagy: 51,942, level confidence: 79%. Set manually.
Starting level for Raphael Kandra: 42,909, level confidence: 58%.
Marwan Elshorbagy to win as he is currently playing 21% better than Raphael Kandra.

Marwan Elshorbagy won 67% of the games and 51% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 20%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 6% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Marwan Elshorbagy played 13% better than Raphael Kandra in this match.

As Marwan Elshorbagy has played below his allowed range at 49,612, his level reduction is 2.3% before damping. On the assumption that Marwan Elshorbagy would normally have been playing at level 51,342 (based on typical behaviour), Raphael Kandra played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 2.9%.
As this is a best of 3 match rather than best of 5, these adjustments have been reduced to 1.6% and 2% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Marwan Elshorbagy changes to -1.1% and Raphael Kandra changes to +2%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Marwan Elshorbagy becomes -0.4% and for Raphael Kandra becomes +0.7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Netsuite Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Marwan Elshorbagy: 89%, Raphael Kandra: 76%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Marwan Elshorbagy: 86%, Raphael Kandra: 73%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Marwan Elshorbagy: 51,711, level confidence: 86%.
Final level for Raphael Kandra: 43,367, level confidence: 73%.