Mohamed Nabil v Noah Browne (Fri 27 Sep 2019)
Match won by Mohamed Nabil. Result: 7-11,11-9,12-10,7-11,11-5.
Starting level for
Mohamed Nabil:
15,132, level confidence: 56%.
Starting level for
Noah Browne:
13,592, level confidence: 58%.
Mohamed Nabil to win as he is currently playing
11% better than Noah Browne.
Mohamed Nabil won 60% of the games and 51% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 4% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mohamed Nabil played
9% better than Noah Browne in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Mohamed Nabil actually played at a level of
14,944 and Noah Browne at a level of
13,763. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 1.3% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mohamed Nabil changes to -1.2% and Noah Browne changes to +1.2%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mohamed Nabil becomes -0.5% and for Noah Browne becomes +0.5%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Wakefield Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mohamed Nabil: 75%, Noah Browne: 76%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mohamed Nabil: 74%, Noah Browne: 75%.
Final level for Mohamed Nabil:
15,050, level confidence: 74%.
Final level for Noah Browne:
13,665, level confidence: 75%.