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Raneem El Welily v Olivia Clyne (Fri 27 Sep 2019)

Match won by Raneem El Welily. Result: 9-11,11-5,11-5.

Starting level for Raneem El Welily: 13,693, level confidence: 85%. Set manually.
Starting level for Olivia Clyne: 9,167, level confidence: 65%.
Raneem El Welily to win as she is currently playing 49% better than Olivia Clyne.

Raneem El Welily won 67% of the games and 60% of the points.
This games result would be expected if she was better by around 20%.
This points result would be expected if she was better by around 48% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Raneem El Welily played 34% better than Olivia Clyne in this match.

As Raneem El Welily has played below her allowed range at 12,346, her level reduction is 0.6% before damping. On the assumption that Raneem El Welily would normally have been playing at level 13,044 (based on typical behaviour), Olivia Clyne played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 3.1%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0.5% and 2.5% respectively.
As this is a best of 3 match rather than best of 5, these adjustments have been reduced to 0.4% and 1.9% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Raneem El Welily changes to -0.3% and Olivia Clyne changes to +1.9%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Raneem El Welily becomes -0.1% and for Olivia Clyne becomes +1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Netsuite Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Raneem El Welily: 92%, Olivia Clyne: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Raneem El Welily: 87%, Olivia Clyne: 77%.

A final adjustment of -0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Raneem El Welily: 13,524, level confidence: 87%.
Final level for Olivia Clyne: 9,306, level confidence: 77%.