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Joel Makin v Mostafa Asal (Fri 27 Sep 2019)

Match won by Joel Makin. Result: 11-5,11-9.

Starting level for Joel Makin: 57,284, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Starting level for Mostafa Asal: 43,584, level confidence: 48%.
Joel Makin to win as he is currently playing 31% better than Mostafa Asal.

Joel Makin won all of the games and 61% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 57% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Joel Makin played 56% better than Mostafa Asal in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Joel Makin actually played at a level of 62,495 and Mostafa Asal at a level of 39,950. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 9.1% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 7.9% and 7.9% respectively.
As this is a best of 3 match rather than best of 5, these adjustments have been reduced to 5.9% and 5.9% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Joel Makin changes to +3.8% and Mostafa Asal changes to -5.9%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Joel Makin becomes +1.2% and for Mostafa Asal becomes -1.7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Netsuite Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Joel Makin: 87%, Mostafa Asal: 70%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Joel Makin: 79%, Mostafa Asal: 64%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Joel Makin: 57,861, level confidence: 79%.
Final level for Mostafa Asal: 43,070, level confidence: 64%.