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Ryan Cuskelly v Campbell Grayson (Fri 27 Sep 2019)

Match won by Ryan Cuskelly. Result: 11-2,12-10.

Starting level for Ryan Cuskelly: 45,365, level confidence: 64%.
Starting level for Campbell Grayson: 43,031, level confidence: 67%.
Ryan Cuskelly to win as he is currently playing 5% better than Campbell Grayson.

Ryan Cuskelly won all of the games and 66% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 92% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Ryan Cuskelly played 92% better than Campbell Grayson in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Ryan Cuskelly actually played at a level of 61,168 and Campbell Grayson at a level of 31,914. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 35% to match this result.
As this is a best of 3 match rather than best of 5, these adjustments have been reduced to 24% and 24% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Ryan Cuskelly changes to +24% and Campbell Grayson changes to -23%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Ryan Cuskelly becomes +4.8% and for Campbell Grayson becomes -4.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Netsuite Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Ryan Cuskelly: 80%, Campbell Grayson: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Ryan Cuskelly: 59%, Campbell Grayson: 61%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Ryan Cuskelly: 47,347, level confidence: 59%.
Final level for Campbell Grayson: 41,462, level confidence: 61%.