Mike McCue v Muhd Asyraf Azan (Thu 26 Sep 2019)
Match won by Mike McCue. Result: 11-6,11-6,12-10.
Starting level for
Mike McCue:
21,492, level confidence: 60%.
Starting level for
Muhd Asyraf Azan:
13,948, level confidence: 38%.
Mike McCue to win as he is currently playing
54% better than Muhd Asyraf Azan.
Mike McCue won all of the games and 61% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 55% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mike McCue played
55% better than Muhd Asyraf Azan in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Mike McCue actually played at a level of
21,534 and Muhd Asyraf Azan at a level of
13,921. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 0% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0%.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mike McCue changes to 0% and Muhd Asyraf Azan changes to 0%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mike McCue becomes +0% and for Muhd Asyraf Azan becomes 0%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Wakefield Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mike McCue: 77%, Muhd Asyraf Azan: 62%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mike McCue: 77%, Muhd Asyraf Azan: 62%.
Final level for Mike McCue:
21,501, level confidence: 77%.
Final level for Muhd Asyraf Azan:
13,938, level confidence: 62%.