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Mike McCue v Muhd Asyraf Azan (Thu 26 Sep 2019)

Match won by Mike McCue. Result: 11-6,11-6,12-10.

Starting level for Mike McCue: 21,492, level confidence: 60%.
Starting level for Muhd Asyraf Azan: 13,948, level confidence: 38%.
Mike McCue to win as he is currently playing 54% better than Muhd Asyraf Azan.

Mike McCue won all of the games and 61% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 55% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mike McCue played 55% better than Muhd Asyraf Azan in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Mike McCue actually played at a level of 21,534 and Muhd Asyraf Azan at a level of 13,921. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 0% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0%.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mike McCue changes to 0% and Muhd Asyraf Azan changes to 0%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mike McCue becomes +0% and for Muhd Asyraf Azan becomes 0%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Wakefield Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mike McCue: 77%, Muhd Asyraf Azan: 62%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mike McCue: 77%, Muhd Asyraf Azan: 62%.

Final level for Mike McCue: 21,501, level confidence: 77%.
Final level for Muhd Asyraf Azan: 13,938, level confidence: 62%.