Youssef Soliman v Baptiste Masotti (Thu 26 Sep 2019)
Match won by Youssef Soliman. Result: 13-11,11-7,11-3.
Starting level for
Youssef Soliman:
35,495, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Baptiste Masotti:
34,384, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Youssef Soliman to win as he is currently playing
3% better than Baptiste Masotti.
Youssef Soliman won all of the games and 63% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 67% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Youssef Soliman played
67% better than Baptiste Masotti in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Youssef Soliman actually played at a level of
45,101 and Baptiste Masotti at a level of
27,061. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 27% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Youssef Soliman changes to +26% and Baptiste Masotti changes to -27%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Youssef Soliman becomes +5.2% and for Baptiste Masotti becomes -5.4%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Malaysian Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Youssef Soliman: 88%, Baptiste Masotti: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Youssef Soliman: 69%, Baptiste Masotti: 68%.
A final adjustment of -0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Youssef Soliman:
37,169, level confidence: 69%.
Final level for Baptiste Masotti:
32,890, level confidence: 68%.