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Carlos Cornes v Max Lee (Thu 26 Sep 2019)

Match won by Carlos Cornes. Result: 11-6,8-11,11-7,11-9.

Starting level for Carlos Cornes: 27,850, level confidence: 70%. Set manually.
Starting level for Max Lee: 38,177, level confidence: 46%.
Max Lee to win as he is currently playing 37% better than Carlos Cornes.

Carlos Cornes won 75% of the games and 55% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 24% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Carlos Cornes played 25% better than Max Lee in this match. An upset!

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Carlos Cornes actually played at a level of 36,419 and Max Lee at a level of 29,194. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 31% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 26% and 26% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Carlos Cornes changes to +17% and Max Lee changes to -26%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Carlos Cornes becomes +3.9% and for Max Lee becomes -5.2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Malaysian Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Carlos Cornes: 84%, Max Lee: 68%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Carlos Cornes: 64%, Max Lee: 52%.

A final adjustment of +1.4% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Carlos Cornes: 28,944, level confidence: 64%.
Final level for Max Lee: 37,358, level confidence: 52%.